2008年10月5日星期日

The Future of China

多政策目标下的迷失 - 活着是为了什么?

Go back to "The Future of China"

I would like to focus on the following areas: Pre-Condition; Economy; Culture; Politics; General Issues

PRE-CONDITION

  • Stability of politics is the first tier pre-condition to discuss "The Future of China" ;

  • Stability of economics is the second tier pre-condition;

  • No 3rd-World War is the third pre-condition.

What does China need to sacrifice for the three pre-conditions according to the priorities?

1. To manage the "big boat" like China, temporary/a reasonable period of centralized regime is for sure; (Fortune 500 MNCs can't do decentralization until their subsidiaries have really grown-up); the same to China, the central government can only empower the local governments and departments step by step, which may cause a lot of inconveniences to the people and other organizations - I call it as a cost of system/organization. If we have no better system/regime to take-over, then we must accept it. History and current situation told that, China needs to accept it for a while.)

2. "Human rights" and "democracy". It's no doubt that "centralized regime" may have a negative impact on "human rights" and "democracy" in some degree, however, you can also find that "human rights", "democracy" and "freedom" are the targets of country development. - We need to bear hungry, uptight, lower living-quality, others' laughers and etc when we are trying to create a great job at the very beginning, since we are a team. Freedom and democracy is a result of comparison, each kind of system may have its limits.

3. High supervision and administration cost. People and companies are required to get many “stamps” from different government departments when they are planning to do some business in China, which have also driven me crazy and criticizing the governments and departments. What will happen if it’s as easy as registering a company in Virgin Island in China? The current tax system, fiscal system and other systems must be cracked; China economy must be in chaos. We can’t do something “good” but out of control at a specific time.

4. Military and international role. Sun Zi, the eldest militarist in China, said that “never expect others won’t attack you, instead of that, do get prepared to tell them can’t do that”. Based on this philosophy, China must have a reasonable strong power in military. China will play a more important role in world economy, through this; the world may have a better understanding of China. From my perspective, the first step is that, China needs to tell the world that they need to have some interest in EAST. The left part of the world has no need to be afraid about China’s growth, since Chinese, the country and the people are humble and kind to the world as I know, such kind of culture has been existed for thousands of years. China’s international influence can be an exceptional stream to balance the world structure.

ECONOMY

Based on my research and thoughts, I consider the following areas are keys for China in the coming decades:

1. Outbound-Globalization.

China has joined WTO for 7 years, reviewing these years, China is glorying in its good performance in export and FDI, and however, China hasn’t got too many successful outbound-globalization cases. Outbound-globalization is a compulsory course and option in front of China and the Chinese companies to win their international positions.

2. Finance system/industry.

The recent economy crisis and recession has demonstrated the importance of finance. The products’ movement is much slower than capital; finance industry is a ligament for a country’s economy. There is a long way to go for China’s finance industry and finance system reformation.

3. R&D – Innovation.

“Science and technology constitute a primary productive force.” Creative and innovative mind is the engine for development.

CULTURE

Culture is the “GOD”; GOD is a “CULTURE”. Re-structure and form the unique Chinese culture.

1. Middle class. A large and stable “middle class” is the foundation for a mature and stable social culture basis.

2. Education. Deliver and cultivate knowledge and culture.

The target of culture development is that: Chinese people are loving themselves and proud of themselves in mind are on appearance – Find themselves.

POLITICS

Regime reformation. It’s not only the west that knows the limitations and shortcomings of the current Chinese regime; the government has detected that from the very beginning. Mr. Deng Xiaoping has pointed out the regime reformation as the vital factor for China’s success, the classical saying is that: “CPC’s enemy is herself.” Roman was not built in one day, let’s wait and see how it is going.

GENERAL ISSUES

Pollution/environment protection; freedom, human rights, democracy; the gap between rich and poverty……

Take development as the solution to resolve the problems raised in development. – Do excise everyday to keep fit, the damaged skin, exhausted energy, the cut hair, lost teeth and etc. will be renewed naturally.

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