2008年10月5日星期日

慈善的制度安排

“偏好的稳定性”是“理性人假设”的基础;“趋利避害”是“理性人”决策的基本准则;社会的整体活动绝不会是一种无意识、不理性的行为;因此,社会慈善活动若有良好的制度安排,将会更加高效、优质地实现“第三次分配”。

纵然“趋利避害”是理性人决策时所遵循的基本原则,然而,我们必须承认,不同人或同一人在不同时期的“偏好”不尽相同,因此,经济分析和解释过程中便不能一概而论,务必就事论事。

假如“偏好”是变化的,是多样的,那么,其变化必遵从某一规律,唯独这样才能支持“偏好稳定”这一基础性假设,即偏好之于个体是不断变化的,之于社会是多样的,但遵从规律变化,交叉分布,呈阶段性稳定。“马斯洛需求”理论对这样的变化做过详细的分析。因此,经济分析人的“利己”行为时,其中之“利”是以当事人的内在价值系统作为衡量“利”与“害”的标准。抛开道德评判标准,自愿捐献和牺牲等行为亦可被认为是一种“利己”行为,因为他们的人生价值体系决定这种行为是其“利”所在也。因此,任何一种付出,当事人均需对其效果有所衡量,评价其“利己”的程度,那么,良好的制度安排在很大程度上影响着慈善所能汇集的能量,以及其实现慈善目标的效率和效果。

倘如以上分析可以被读者所接受,那么,把慈善作为一种“商品”就可以被理解,进而思考,“买方定价”便是慈善的一个重要特征。影响买方定价的两个重要因素是:目标价格或目标成本(Target Price/Cost);参考价格(Benchmarked Price)。

以企业和公众人物捐赠为例:捐多少;什么时候捐;在什么场合捐;以什么方式捐;向什么组织捐?如此等等,都是重要的考量因素,否则,在舆论中,很容易落个“吃力不讨好”的结果 — 我想这不应该是捐赠者所期望的误解。虽然慈善本身并不对慈善的方式做如此细致的规定,但作为一种社会行为,慈善不得不接受这样的社会评判。

当四川发生地震后,大量企业积极捐款,为政府和受灾群众提供了大量的帮助。在捐赠的同时,有的企业品牌形象得到了很好的推广,有的企业品牌却在因为“捐赠事件”遭到了损害,最后上升到了“品牌公关”的困境。其中不少跨国企业受到了极大的非议,民众以“国际铁公鸡”称呼他们,民营企业中,阿里巴巴和万科受到的冲击最为引人注目。起因非常简单,由于这两个企业的领导人在一些场合表达了自己的“真实感受”。

据“传言”称,马云认为:对眼下的中国企业家来说,最大的善举不在捐款,而是搞好自己的企业。 其依据是:“第一,你要为社会承担责任,你的企业提供的服务、生产的产品要对社会负责;第二,你得依法纳税,不要逃税漏税;第三,即使有钱了,你也不一定就得着急捐出去,可以好好扩大投资,把企业做得更好更大,增加更多的就业机会,让社会的财富滚动起来,等你60岁、70岁的时候再把自己的财富捐出去也不迟。”

马云言论的起因是:在参加一场慈善捐款活动时,马云承诺要捐出一笔钱,主办者半开玩笑半激将地对他说:“某老总可捐了1000万哟!”这话让马云很是不爽,接而说到:“我要大力提倡捐1块钱的风气,不要总是把善心、爱心和捐款金额挂起钩来!”马云强调,善心、爱心并不是富人的专利,提倡捐1块钱其实是提倡让更多人发扬爱心。

据说万科在得知四川地震的第一时间就捐出了200多万人民币作为善款,但受到了社会各界众多非议,因此王石在博客中发表了自己的观点:“万科捐出200万是合适的”,因为,“中国是个灾害频发的国家,赈灾慈善活动是个常态,企业的捐赠活动应该可持续,而不成为负担”。

随着事态的发展,两家企业都以不同渠道向社会做出了解释,并承诺在未来几年里,计划投入几千万,甚至上亿的资金用于灾后重建。在此同时,不少企业竞相追加捐赠款项。

在各个企业解释中,对于第一次捐款不多的一个解释是:企业最初不知事态的严重性,对灾情认识不足。也一有企业界人士认为,在日常生活中,各类慈善捐款太多了,他们根本不知道慈善捐款是否被有效利用,因此对慈善捐款持怀疑态度,有的时候甚至是借故回绝。同时,有的企业在做出捐款承诺后,由于媒体报道不足,声称没有达到品牌推广预期,因此,拒绝履行承诺。

我不禁想,如果中国政府或红十字会在第一时间向慈善事业的积极参与企业准确传达灾情的严重程度,并获得他们的捐赠,为此次慈善活动做一次“定价”,那么,其他企业的捐赠行为和捐款额度会有什么变化呢?如果政府在开展一次大规模慈善捐款号召的同时,严明其法纪,以良好监督机制示人,那么,情况是否又有什么变化?如果政府对所有的捐赠都列有明细,并集中公布,那么在参照体系下,组织和个人的捐赠者又会受到怎样的影响?我想这不是简单的一个攀比机制。

繁华的都市中,乞讨成了另一道“风景线”,透过乞丐面前那一个个钵盆不但能够看出一个地区市民的善良影子,也能看出该区域的富裕程度,因此,大城市里的乞丐总比中小城市多。与一般乞丐相比,“艺乞”更容易被人接受,不那么容易被人厌恶,当然,这与其“艺术水平”息息相关。

通过与乞讨者的交谈,以及大量观察乞讨者及路人的行为,我有一个发现:乞讨的“技艺”很大程度地影响着乞讨者的“收入量”;施舍者的行为相互影响着彼此。

某日,我游荡在上海外滩区域,出于好奇,我坐到了路边两个乞丐旁。当我点着一支烟开始思考什么的时候,旁边一个乞讨的大哥忽然打断了我的思路。“可以弄根烟抽吗?”抽烟人互相给烟是一件很平常的事情,更何况那时那景,因此,我非常乐意地奉上烟,并给他点上了火。都说散烟与抽烟的时刻是“社交”的“黄金时间”,借此机会,我和那位大哥搭讪起来。

谈论间,我得知他与旁边一人是“乞友”,经过白天的劳作,傍晚时分在那里休整片刻。我好奇地问抽烟那位大哥:“做这一行有什么技巧吗?”也许是限于“知识产权”,他只是向我“打了个哈哈”,基本上回绝了我的问题。向大师学艺,被拒绝是世之常事,我们可以选择“程门立雪”,以显求学之心,至真至切;也可以选择“察其言,观其行”,偷学秘籍。

一支烟罢,又是一支。那大哥在烟足后开始不理我这旁人了,只顾与其同伴谈论着什么。此时,难得有一拨行人从远处走来,那哥俩开始忙活起来,拿出行头,吹奏起来,细细听来,在他们的包里置有音箱,用以扩声,求闻者彰也。

路人缓缓驶过,除了投来目光,并没有更加实在的行动。当路人的背影离我们所在处约十米处,那哥俩停了下来,又开始了窃窃私语。当下一轮行人路过时,他们又开始了工作。如此几轮,我了解了个大概:行乞也是需要看投资回报率的,更需要把好钢用在刀刃上。

我所在期间,除了一对情侣的两枚硬币,那两位朋友没有什么收入。我心里隐隐地有些遗憾,唯恐是我影响了他们团队的整体形象,于是乎,我选择了离开。在离开一段距回头看时,那哥俩已开始向人群更深处的南京路步行街漫去。我能做的,也就是心理默默祝福他们了。

在我去过的城市中,硬币只有在上海被大量,且大范围地使用。一元和五角面值的硬币为街头行乞者的“业务”带来了极大的支付便宜。如果没有那么多的“碎银”,乞者的收入该会受到多大程度的影响啊?如果没有那么多“碎银”,行人们乐善好施的行为又会出现如何的变化?

与街头一般行乞者相比,弹奏着吉他,吹着萨克斯等的“艺乞”生活状况有些不同。仔细看看,在他们的“收银台”上不乏有十元,五元面值的纸币数张。

前不久,我在乘坐地铁的时候,一哥们抱着吉他登场了,并以吉他袋为其“收银”装置,可谓一脉相承,协调有佳。站稳后,那兄弟便开始弹唱起来,我想,他也许是出于自尊的考虑,弹唱间,他不看两旁的乘客,而只是一味地沉醉在他自己的音乐中。

一曲唱罢,车内显得比平常安静了许多。在第二曲开唱不久,一位大姐慷慨解囊,走上前,扔进了十元大钞。那大姐的行动弄得在口袋里寻找零钱的我,有些尴尬,甚至放弃了这次善举的机会。为了表示谢意,那兄弟站到了一个离大姐更近的地方,以示感激。在复歌部分,旁边一女孩也随着音乐开始摇摆起来,虽然她没有其他行动,我想这也是一种支持和善意吧。随着第三曲的开唱,歌声向远处漂去,我只看见一位大哥放进了一张纸币,按经验判断,这一张纸币不会少于五元。

边听、边看,边想,如果那兄弟一边弹唱,一边看着我,那会怎样?如果那位大姐扔进的是一枚,抑或几枚硬币,那么,旁人以及我又会怎样?

有一个现象让我非常在意:从来没有一个乞讨者拿着空空的“容器”行乞。有的乞者前面的碗里居然有几张十元,以及硬币数十枚。结合个人感受,那“容器”里的有无、多少或多或少影响着我,以及其他路人的行为方式。

总结分析以上事件和故事,我们不难发现,慈善过程中人们的行为相互影响着对方;捐赠者在行善的瞬间,心绪变化非常大;每一次捐献的额度弹性非常大;行乞着的一举一动,或灾难的严重程度深深地影响着善良人们的行为;人们对行善的结果报以厚望,对“以善的名义”欺骗自己善良的行为十分愤慨。

在这样的理解下,如果慈善中捐赠与受赠要成为一种有效的“第三种分配方式”,其运营的体制设计,制度安排非常重要,这在很大程度上影响着慈善的效率和效果。在写作本文期间,透过电视了解到国内一网站在地震后发起的一场募捐活动,虽然,他们的善举最后被政府善意地终止了,但他们的组织方式和运营过程却为慈善、慈善机构,还有政府提供了一个很好的参考。究其原因,还在于他们清楚地告诉了人们,为什么捐钱,捐给谁,怎么给,怎么确保给到,怎么监督组织者等人们关心的问题。至于细节,请通过网络查阅《牛博网友为四川大地震捐款捐物的方案(初稿)》。

呓语(1)

Following the successful stories like Bangalore International Tech Park, Suzhou Industrial Park, Dalian Tech Park and etc. Ascendas planned to invest more than 3.5 billion RMB to build Singapore Hangzhou Science & Technology Park, which is focusing on BPO, ITO, KPO, Bio-Tech, R&D, Industrial Design, Professional Service and Incubators.

I am dreaming and proposing to build "Four Centers" to feature this park as below:


* 中国科技研发中心


After decades' development, Chinese companies must improve their R&D ability, South Korea and Japan's development should be the best examples that Chinese companies need to learn from, otherwise, it's not easy for China to keep consistent and continuing rapid growth. We hope to build an international standard R&D center for both MNCs and Chinese companies.

* 中国经济交流中心

We are planning to invite hundreds Chinese cities to set up representative offices there, the reason is very simple. City government are trying their best to attract investment, however, most of them don't know how to package their projects and do city marketing, the center can provide a place for the cities to do City Exhibition and Projects Introduction, at the meantime, tons of investors may eyes on this center to find projects. China must boom it's domestic economy and shift from investment & export lead towards domestic consumption lead to mitigate the risk of global fluctuation. The center will play an important role for that.

* 中国电子商务中心

It's no doubt that E-Biz will take a more and more important role in the future world economy, Hangzhou is the hometown of Ablibaba and many other E-Biz companies, that's why it has the foundation to do so.

* 中国工业设计中心

Industrial design is vital part of R&D for next generation's development of Chinese economy. Product Concepts Design and Industrial Design of the products' appearance may be a great help for Chinese manufacturers to do innovation. Most of Chinese companies failed for marketing, branding, and design, this is an evidence for the great potential in this area in China.

Why is Hangzhou?

1.Center of Chinese private enterprises

2.Lead of Chinese manufacture

3.Pioneer of Chinese E-Commerce

4.Well structured center of history, economy and culture; sound international reputation

5.Important center & bridge of Chinese economy and international business

6.Located at one of the Chinese talents pools; featured by its exclusive culture, history and economy basis

7.Featured by its outstanding location for both domestic and international business

8.After decades’ rapid development, Zhejiang needs an integrated system, which consists advanced R&D, efficient communication & exchange and modern industrial facilities

9.Advantage of Backwardness based on the experience of technology and industrial parks in Suzhou, Shanghai, Dalian and etc.

10.Government support

Your inputs and advices are much appreciated.

Nice Day Yeah

Nice Day Yeah
The illogical formulation: I need to prove myself first before I can get a chance to prove it
These days are quite interesting, I have met a South Africa woman, who told me that South Africa is not so dangerous as the medias told, as a consideration, I told her an old Chinese saying: beautiful wife can't cook without rice; I have met the senior vice president of of Melco, the reason is simple, coz she invited me to have an interview for the VP position, however, I need to prove that I am qualified to take the chance to prove my capability. The interesting talk between us should be like that, "my personal connections and resources are quite limited, that's why I am applying for a senior level job rather than a junior one, since then i can integrate and leverage others' resources and connections." - increditable..ridiculous -- anyway, that's kevin..
The simple cases told me that i was strong or feeling strong of myself when I was talking to them, especially, I said "no" when the SVP consulted me whether do i have some interest to consider a position such as director or managers. It's also an evidence to prove the theory that the strongest one is who can say "take it or loose it" firstly.
Anyway, that's all for a simple fun, the concerns on the seniors' side are always the same, which means that i need to provide a track-record to prove myself, the problem is that i need a chance to creat my track-record... if all of you don't lend me money, how do you know my credit...serious....my credit seems bad...Gosh
I am trying to overcome and enlarge the "comfortable zone" in my mind... To be a brave man without dread...never care about my "face" lah...Nothing at all...
喝醉了以后,还能想些什么?是纯纯的爱,还是飘飘的愁?- You never know what's it untile you have really got drunk - that's kevin as well
must go home lah...

The Future of China

多政策目标下的迷失 - 活着是为了什么?

Go back to "The Future of China"

I would like to focus on the following areas: Pre-Condition; Economy; Culture; Politics; General Issues

PRE-CONDITION

  • Stability of politics is the first tier pre-condition to discuss "The Future of China" ;

  • Stability of economics is the second tier pre-condition;

  • No 3rd-World War is the third pre-condition.

What does China need to sacrifice for the three pre-conditions according to the priorities?

1. To manage the "big boat" like China, temporary/a reasonable period of centralized regime is for sure; (Fortune 500 MNCs can't do decentralization until their subsidiaries have really grown-up); the same to China, the central government can only empower the local governments and departments step by step, which may cause a lot of inconveniences to the people and other organizations - I call it as a cost of system/organization. If we have no better system/regime to take-over, then we must accept it. History and current situation told that, China needs to accept it for a while.)

2. "Human rights" and "democracy". It's no doubt that "centralized regime" may have a negative impact on "human rights" and "democracy" in some degree, however, you can also find that "human rights", "democracy" and "freedom" are the targets of country development. - We need to bear hungry, uptight, lower living-quality, others' laughers and etc when we are trying to create a great job at the very beginning, since we are a team. Freedom and democracy is a result of comparison, each kind of system may have its limits.

3. High supervision and administration cost. People and companies are required to get many “stamps” from different government departments when they are planning to do some business in China, which have also driven me crazy and criticizing the governments and departments. What will happen if it’s as easy as registering a company in Virgin Island in China? The current tax system, fiscal system and other systems must be cracked; China economy must be in chaos. We can’t do something “good” but out of control at a specific time.

4. Military and international role. Sun Zi, the eldest militarist in China, said that “never expect others won’t attack you, instead of that, do get prepared to tell them can’t do that”. Based on this philosophy, China must have a reasonable strong power in military. China will play a more important role in world economy, through this; the world may have a better understanding of China. From my perspective, the first step is that, China needs to tell the world that they need to have some interest in EAST. The left part of the world has no need to be afraid about China’s growth, since Chinese, the country and the people are humble and kind to the world as I know, such kind of culture has been existed for thousands of years. China’s international influence can be an exceptional stream to balance the world structure.

ECONOMY

Based on my research and thoughts, I consider the following areas are keys for China in the coming decades:

1. Outbound-Globalization.

China has joined WTO for 7 years, reviewing these years, China is glorying in its good performance in export and FDI, and however, China hasn’t got too many successful outbound-globalization cases. Outbound-globalization is a compulsory course and option in front of China and the Chinese companies to win their international positions.

2. Finance system/industry.

The recent economy crisis and recession has demonstrated the importance of finance. The products’ movement is much slower than capital; finance industry is a ligament for a country’s economy. There is a long way to go for China’s finance industry and finance system reformation.

3. R&D – Innovation.

“Science and technology constitute a primary productive force.” Creative and innovative mind is the engine for development.

CULTURE

Culture is the “GOD”; GOD is a “CULTURE”. Re-structure and form the unique Chinese culture.

1. Middle class. A large and stable “middle class” is the foundation for a mature and stable social culture basis.

2. Education. Deliver and cultivate knowledge and culture.

The target of culture development is that: Chinese people are loving themselves and proud of themselves in mind are on appearance – Find themselves.

POLITICS

Regime reformation. It’s not only the west that knows the limitations and shortcomings of the current Chinese regime; the government has detected that from the very beginning. Mr. Deng Xiaoping has pointed out the regime reformation as the vital factor for China’s success, the classical saying is that: “CPC’s enemy is herself.” Roman was not built in one day, let’s wait and see how it is going.

GENERAL ISSUES

Pollution/environment protection; freedom, human rights, democracy; the gap between rich and poverty……

Take development as the solution to resolve the problems raised in development. – Do excise everyday to keep fit, the damaged skin, exhausted energy, the cut hair, lost teeth and etc. will be renewed naturally.

Inspirational Quote

Four Lessons on Life
1. Never take down a fence until you know why it was put up.
2. If you get too far ahead of the army, your soldiers may mistake you for the enemy.
3. Don't complain about the bottom rungs of the ladder; they helped to get you higher.
4. If you want to enjoy the rainbow, be prepared to endure the storm.
Warren Wiersbe

4Cs: China, Commodities, Currencies, Correction -- ATCA Open and Philanthropia Socratic Dialogue

1. China

What is China; what is the Chinese market? Does re-adjustment matter?

Yes, Chinese market is one of the most dynamic markets over the world, predictions are usually like gambling, because there are so many influctuation and re-adjustment - a youth's future is unpredictable.

The model of "borrowing money for consumption" may not be the philosophy for current Chinese people; high saving rate may off-set a lot of consuming powers in the domestic market. I just assumed this is one key reason why does Chinese government and people are focusing more on export to drive the economy growth. This phenomena wont be changed very soon, thus to continue the economy growth in the slowdown period, fiscal policy will take the most important role - government investment into infrastrcuture development, however, the expected result is domestic marketing booming.

I think the people in China or overseas don't need to worry about China's economic and political re-adjustment, because recent years development has demonstrated that the government and the enterprises have found the right directions most of the time; the re-adjustment should promote the Chinese economy to a better situation.

2. Commodities

The international commodity market is more divese than Chinese ecnomy, since the investors in this area have no consistent strategies. The fluctuation of international commodities has caused and will cause a lot of uncertainty to Chinese economy. It seems that the commodity market has been managed by some finance giants rather than the market itself.

The greatest challenge derived from commodities' market is China's pricing structure for some specific products - oil, gas, electricity and etc., which have strong impact on demostic market related to CPI, PPI. - it's a key index to indicate people's living quality.

3. Currencies

Many people feel nervous about China's USD assests and RMB's appreciation.

a. China has changed its foreign currencies' portfolio, which has reduced the percentage of USD assests;

b. For a country like China, the analysis of foreign assests shouldn't be the same as for a company, since China must hold enough/a reasonable amount of USD assest for many kinds of reasons, furthermore, USD won't be always weak as today.

c. China's development needs RMB's appreciation, otherwise, China may suffer a great CPI increase. Chinese people need to be more rich aline with Chinese economy growth; Chinese people/professionals need to get an international income standard. There are two ways to ahieve that: one is to add Chinese workers's salary annually with a rapid growth; the other one is RMB's appreciation.

Cost advantage shouldn't be an advantage forever, otherwise, China is "poor" forever and other "third world countries" won't find their future.

4. Correction

In my opinion, China's industrial innovation & upgrade and finance system development are the critical factors in the coming years.

"Correction." What's that? Beside the reduction of interest rate, Chinese market needs a more comprehensive finance product-mix.

I believe that there is a great market potential for finance service in China.

Has the American style "Free Capitalistic Economy" totaly failed or is there a middle path between "Capitalistic & Socialistic"

We can't give a stone to the dog in the well, everything has two sides - Double Blade Sword.

Free-Market-Economy needs three foundations to support:

First is that there is a well structured rules, everything can run predictably;

Second is that no asymmetry information, the transaction cost is ZERO;

Third is that the participators are mature enough and equally, which means that they know the equal information and have common knowledge to do decision.

Rationality assumption is living with a real situation that is limited-rationality.

When the market haven't met these assumptions, maybe, as you said there should be "middle path" in place to manage the market, which is probably the hand of macro policy and supervision.

BTW: As Deng Xiao Ping said, "Capitalistic & Socialistic" is not a good way to discuss economy policy. In my opinion, the difference between "Capitalistic & Socialistic" is mainly related to the regimes' vision, mision ,and some times, property right's belonging.

As i have mentioned in some other place, COMMUNIST is not only the goal for socialistic countries, but the goal for the human beings, though it's not clear and practical enough at sight.